Saturday, February 26, 2011
Barack Obama 2012: Strategic Planning. Mikhail Kryzhanovsky, KGB
That’s the biggest problem for all administrations. Strategic planning is the process of making present decisions based on very well-calculated future consequences. The basic strategic objective is a decision as to where to concentrate the government efforts — this is the essence of strategic planning.
The worst example of strategic planning is the war in Iraq.
It is crucial to choose a professional crew and place people in positions where their brains will work effectively and produce quality.
- design strategy
- amplify and clarify strategy into policy
- organize a team
- guide execution
- make final strategic decision
A. Regular planning model:
subject, concept, idea definition of objectives
design of innovative options and debate
exploration of concepts, claims and possibilities
development of program outlines
establishment of expected performance criteria and indications
integration of ideological elements
assignment of executive responsibility
analysis and experiment
experiment evaluation, examination of likely consequences
comparison of expected and actual performance levels
determination of costs
B. Express planning: information interpretation, projects design, choice of a project, decision
C. Regular (math) model:
Negotiations planning (example): pressure, compromise, tricks, break.
Let’s evaluate "pressure": negative international reaction /-1/, breakdown /-1/ ,positive effect /+1/. Score: -2+1=-1 Conclusion: no pressure should be used.
D. Expertise model.
Government crisis (example): poor planning- wrong decisions- wrong actions- wrong execution- opposition activation- mass protests- coup
E. Scale model.
Risk factors: Risk levels:
Intenational sanctions medium
High inflation rise medium to high
High unemployment medium to high
Low public support level(low polls) medium
Presidential decision making rules:
1. Decision making is a multiple choice process.
2. Any decision involves political risk.
3. If you can’t make a decision, you need more information.
4. Be optimistic, but remain realistic.
5. Give yourself a deadline.
6. No brainstorming chaos.
7. There are two kinds of decisions: irreversible and reversible. Better know which kind you are facing.
Here’s the process:
a) Identify the problem
b) Analyze the problem — what are the facts?
c) Evaluate options — what are the pros and cons? what can go wrong?
d) Identify choices — which alternative is the best?
e) Implement plans — what action needs to be taken?
Psychological Modeling of a President (Strategic Intelligence Method)
Intelligence services worldwide watch political leaders during public appearances, trying to calculate their physical and mental health judging by their look and behavior. In the US they also evaluate the executives and staffers who surround the President at official meetings to calculate what’s going on in the White House.
They look at:
- a very detailed biography
- personal needs, interests, philosophy
- political views
- intelligence, will-power, character, abilities
- behavior in crisis situations
- compromising facts and possible methods of influence
- personal, political and big business VIP connections
- financial situation
- administration and team
- political opposition and President