Saturday, February 26, 2011
Barack Obama 2012: Foreign Policy Secrets. KGB Mikhail Kryzhanovsky
1. International treaties have to be negotiated by diplomats prior to endorsement by presidents.
2. The information gathered by spies plays an increasingly role in diplomacy (arms-control treaties would be impossible without the power of reconnaissance satellites and agents to monitor compliance).
3. If you start war, it doesn’t mean you failed diplomacy , it means military decision is much more profitable.
4. Make it clear to foreign leaders right away whether you are or you are not going to follow the previous President’s foreign policy (after consultations with big business). If you are not going to follow it, design a doctrine of your own (it’s a strategy that is the recognized approach or policy of the US government.
5. National security is your top priority and is the “king’s job” because actually you have no domestic political obstacles to your foreign policy (if it’s a question of war), so you are a chief decision maker there. (The CIA Director has to be excluded from this process — you don’t need him. Besides, the CIA even today, no matter how hard I tried to educate the Agency, remains the worst of the worst and is not to be reformed — it has to be abolished. We have to transfer political intelligence functions to Pentagon. National security is designed to protect the United States and the vital interests (investments) of big business and to promote American values in a world of rivals, and the CIA, through all 60 years of its history, has proved to be absolutely unsuitable for the job).
6. Any country has to be involved in the sphere of our strategic interests if it has a strategic geographic position, significant sources of raw materials, a well-developed transportation system, or could be used as a military base. The strategic policy of any country rotates around the USA and if not — that means a certain President is waiting for greater incentives to come on board. Against target countries, don’t hesitate to use the strategies of pre-emptive war, post-war (post-crisis) reconstruction, and nation building (which means erasing national identity and supplanting it by liberal values).
With China’s growth and Russia’s rebirth, the Cold War is back with a vengeance, so we are back to secret deals based on spheres of influence — but that’s a temporary strategy.
7. You can’t always do what you want without help - you are dependent on other world leaders, Congressional positions and international public opinion. Ask the Senate to help you sometimes - believe me, they’ll be happy and proud to do so.
8. Create super-profitable conditions for big business by political penetration worldwide. Big money men start investing abroad when they find a safe environment — law and order. The more they invest the more political power they get (international corporationsis the most important element of international system ; the other two are governments and non-governmental organizations).
9. Use big investors to ruin other national economies and governments by withdrawing finances when the economic situation is worsening. As soon as the country opens its financial markets, it increases its dependence on global economic processes that it cannot control; and a financial crisis can easily be staged. Conversely, other countries’ access to the US markets is a powerful economic and political tool.
10. Make the US markets the most attractive for investors by provoking unstable situations in other countries and regions.
11. Send troops or work through military intelligence (not the CIA) to wherever you perceive a threat to the US investments.
12. Use pressure everywhere — strategic nuclear missiles are still the most powerful blackmail tool. Remember, if you are dealing with Russia or China, they will look not only for agreement, but for advantages.
13. Use “personal diplomacy” — phone calls to foreign leaders (every planned phone call has to go through the National Security Adviser and be well prepared, like a serious negotiation). Most important are phone calls to our allies — NATO members. Don’t forget to wish happy birthday to the leaders in person!
14. Use “informal diplomacy” – recruit politicians in other nations who might be able to give informal access to a country’s leadership. In some situations, such as betweeb USA and China diplomacy is done through semi-formal channels using interlocutors such as academic members or thinktanks. This occurs in situations when presidents wish to express intentions or to suggest methods of resolving a diplomatic situation, but do not wish to express a formal position.
15. Don’t hesitate to use summits as a tool, because:
-if you meet a foreign leader in person, you can reduce tensions and clarify national interests.
-personal relationship may lead to improved relations between nations.
-summits allow you to focus national attention on specific issues.
-presidents engaging in personal diplomacy are much more capable than career diplomatic bureaucrats of understanding the domestic policy consequences of diplomatic actions.
-summit negotiations can yield quick results, since discussions are between leaders with the power of decision rather than between representatives who must receive instructions, make reports and rely new proposals.
-diplomatic impasses may be overcome at summits by shifts in policy that only top leaders are empowered to make.
-if presidents desire an international forum for their diplomatic policies, a summit meeting can provide one.
-successful summits can enhance the image of the President and the United States
16. If you’re ready to fight for national interests, forget about human rights — you can always blame infractions on the other side.
17. Isolation is the greatest enemy to information.
18. There’s no sense in applying sanctions if big business isn’t interested.
19. Economic and hence, political progress for any country affects the USA through economic competition that threatens the market and jobs.
20. Any initiative is risky if it’s about unstable region, but you lose popularity fast if you are perceived as indecisive or weak in foreign policy.
21. Any trip abroad has to convey a strong message.
22. Direct military intrusion indicates weakness in your foreign policy. If it’s inescapable, involve as many allies as you can.
23. Don’t touch our military bases abroad!
24. Big debts open markets. No matter what, open national markets world-wide for American big business and remember — the markets, not Presidents, rule the world.
25. Tie your allies to international economic projects and make them pay most of the expenses.
26. Never talk about money in public — talk about democracy, human rights, liberal values and disarmament — people like it.
27. Move forward — transform Americans’ national and patriotic feelings into nationalistic ones (follow the French model) to get total support of your policy (see “Mind Control”).
28. Don’t pay too much attention to the CIA — all they have to do is to support you with appropriate information to justify your strategic political decisions - and nothing else.
29. Ignore the UN — Secretary General has no real power, but you can take advantage of such a thing as the UN peace-keeping if it corresponds with your interests - the US economic costs could be minimized. Besides, UN peacekeeping can promote a spirit of international accountability in solving a certain regional problem. Don’t forget to explain your strategy to the Congress - they don’t like the UN either. On the other hand, you have to manage an international crisis, if it threatens our national interests (start with strategic planning, check national security system for the adequate response, use propaganda to get domestic and international support, consult with big business and allies, start crisis negotiations if possible, use diplomacy (see below) and force or threat of force).
30. To reach global leadership you must have enough resources, national support and a well-calculated strategy (see also “Strategic planning”). As you already know, the US budget is financed by foreign lending. When the dollar goes down in foreign exchange markets, it’s supported by foreign central banks and you’re OK as long as Japan, Saudi Arabia and Germany have an interest in propping up the American economy and do not raise the price for financing America’s debt. The worst situation would be to lose support both at home and abroad.