Barack Obama 2012: How to Win Elections. 4. Mikhail Kryzhanovsky

 Debates

  Debates are very important because they offer the only all-national event at which candidates can be judged. You and your opponent will be under huge stress as you both must operate simultaneously at the focus of attention of each other and of all elements of electorate. Debates are, actually, head-to-head confrontations with two main aspects: the pre-debate negotiations over whether there will be a debate, and the post-debate analysis of who did how well. The debates offer nothing new for the public and the basic strategy is to hope your opponent will make a mistake (President Ford made one in 1976, saying that: “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.” People just didn’t want to hear it. Richard Nixon was very wrong in 1960 trying to debate on substance, while his opponent, John F. Kennedy, concentrated on style and on presenting the correct presidential image).
  While preparing for the winning debates you must:
- have a detailed file on your opponent and study all his speeches and statements; ask yourself: “What does he have that I don’t have?”
- train to answer all possible questions
- be ready to demonstrate deep knowledge of issues and your presidential bearing to a nationwide audience
- repeat your message but keep in mind that image is more important than ideas while you debate — people want to see your good looks, good clothes and nice smile.
  And here  are the debating “Don’ts”:
Don’t attack first — that’s a sign of weakness.
Don’t be over-polite — a little showmanship appeals to voters.
Don’t be too aggressive — it will ruin your image as a future President.
Don’t answer the questions too fast — that implies you are not thinking.
Don’t rush, no negative emotions, no sudden gestures (extra gestures mean that you are not surewhat you are saying is correct).
Don’t touch anything while you talk.
Don’t disappoint people — speak in a clear and simple way.
You restrict your influence if you sit.
  Follow the rules :      
Avoid anxiety reactions — speech errors, moistening of lips, perspiring, shifting eye movements, body jerks. Gesturing with fingers apart communicates weakness, while gesturing with fingers tightly together communicates power.
Look at your opponent with intense concentration — it gives the attitude of command and comfort of the situation. .
Answer a question you want to answer, no matter what question was asked.
If you give better answers, you are the better candidate.
Immediately after the debates your press officer has to give the media his biased impression and explain why you won the debates. Your pollster has to watch the polls results.

  Speaking in Public 
 
First things first - you have to know your own nation well. Here is a popular classification of American voters:

1. Entrepreneurs. Traditional Republicans driven by free enterprise economic concerns.
2. Moralists. Less affluent populist Republicans driven by moral issues, such as abortion.
3. New Dealers. Older traditional Democrats who are pro-government but socially conservative.
4. Sixties Democrats. Mainstream Democrats highly tolerant of varying lifestyles with strong beliefs in social justice.
5. Partisan poor. Low-income, mainly black, who believe in the Democratic Party as a vehicle for social change.
6. Passive poor. The older God-and-Country Democrats who have a strong faith in America and an uncritical attitude toward its institutions but favor social spending.
7. By-standers. Those who are mainly young, white and poorly educated and who show almost no interest in politics.
8. Upbeats. Young, optimistic moderates who lean toward the Republicans.
9. Disaffected. Middle-aged, pessimistic working class who, even though they have Democratic roots, lean toward the Republicans.
10. Seculars. Affluent and highly educated but lacking religious convictions; committed to personal freedom and peace.
11. Followers. Poor, young, uninformed blue-collar workers with little religious commitment and limited interest in politics.

 "Golden" rules

Your aides have to determine the “theme of the day” and brief you about the day’s events and issues. To get elected you must promise economic growth with low inflation and balanced budget no matter how grave the economic situation is.
Don’t be too specific on issues and tell people they elect their way, not a candidate.
Cite the Bible.
Don’t look too intellectual.
State repeatedly that you’re not going to divide the nation into supporters and enemies, Democrats and Republicans, “my voters and other voters” — be a leader to all. (But first, to win the nomination you must appeal to the more liberal sections of your party if you are Democrat, and to more conservative sections if you belong to Republicans). 
Don’t talk much; transform your thoughts into examples and slogans.
Never say you want power, even if you want to save the nation in crisis.
Never talk down on big business. Promise federal financing, especially in economic downturns.
Remember: voters are extremely sensitive to tax-cut proposals and which social segment would benefit from them. The middle class brings you victory, so promise tax cuts for these people, with tax increases for the wealthy and high unemployment rates.
Even if the economy is OK, point out the signs of coming crisis and promise to change the situation fast. Keep talking about problems, though it’s hard to win if the incumbent President runs for re-election with balanced budget and economic growth.
You can be liberal on domestic issues, but you have to be conservative on national security (defense and foreign affairs).
What to talk about where
Iowa, New Hampshire -        farm problems, energy costs, trade issues
Northern “rustbelt” states -   industrial concerns
Southern states -                defense and social issues
New York State -                unemployment
 
   Use these tactics:
 1.“Join the crowd” — this reinforces people’s natural desire to be on the winning side and it is used to convince the audience that your program is an expression of the nation’s desire for change, and it is in their best interest to join;
2. “Provoked disapproval” — persuade a target audience to disapprove your opponent’s message by suggesting that the message is popular with groups hated, feared or held in contempt by the target audience;
3. “Iinevitable victory” — you invite those who did not join majority;
4. “Neuro-linguistic programming” — you will be elected if you can do this better than your opponent and program the whole nation for a positive reaction. People always try to avoid anything and anybody unpleasant; and people are always looking for pleasant things and other pleasant people, somebody they want to meet again and again or at least see on TV. Everybody wants to be a winner; and to be a winner brings pleasure and self respect. Just convey this sense to the nation:
“Vote for me and you win!” or  
“Vote for me or you lose!” 
“The choice is yours!”
  Now, you have to be the first to install this program in the voters’ minds and the other candidate has no chance.

Barack Obama 2012: How to Win Elections. 3. Mikhail Kryzhanovsky

 Polls

  Pollsters works through newspapers, Internet, telephone surveys, person-to-person surveys, mailed questionnaire to selected voters. They provide voters' behavior research and analyze past election data. They tell to  you how well-known you are, how well you perform, what are the voters’ preferences. You should poll voters in each state in proportion to that state’s share of the national vote. (You must have at least one polling company on payroll.) Polling is of extreme importance in presidential campaign because it’s the tool to correct your strategy, determine “positive” local areas and supportive voters and work with them, it tests the nation’s attitude to your personality and your issues and that means you can calibrate your message and calculate your success. The most important thing about polls is that they play indicator and identify support or hostility. And the golden rule here is: you have to ask the right question if you want to get a useful answer.
  At the same time polling is one of the most expensive elements of a modern campaign because now you have to receive information on too many groups and issues, including groups with specific economic, ethnic, religious, geographic, educational, occupational and residential characteristics and how those characteristics affect attitudes about a wide range of policy issues.
Polls also help you:
- to decide whether to run or not
- improve your recognition and image
- target opposition’s weakness
- formulate media ads
  Your pollster has to pinpoint blocks of voters (swing districts) who are undecided and who might be persuaded to vote for you. Experience shows that 40% of public attention go to social problems, 40% — to economy and 20% — to international matters, but if the United States is at war, the situation is different and national security turns into a top priority for everyone. And watch out for campaign spies — keep polls analysis and media plan secret.

Practical polls
“Benchmark” - surveys of the whole nation which provide basic information about your chances and the nation’s political preferences (it’s your “presidential decision maker”).
“Follow-up” - surveys are used to gather more data about particular concerns raised in initial benchmark surveys. They are conducted state by state and are used in planning campaign strategy.
“Panel” - surveys are used to refine strategy further by re-interviewing previous respondents to determine opinion shifts on specific issues within various demographic categories. They are supplemented by continuous “tracking polls” that measure fluctuations in general voter support for the candidate across time.
“Special group” - used to poll the debate results. Selected groups of voters watch candidate debates and register their “positive “ or “negative” feelings toward the candidate’s specific statements or actions. After that analysts tabulate and analyze the reactions of the whole groups.

 Other Critical Personnel
“Image makers” - political consultants who sell your public image as a clear, simple, portrait-like characterization, acceptable to all groups.
“Hit men” - campaign consultants who are experts on negative advertising, designed to “kill” your opponents.
“Field staff” (in target cities mostly). The most important person at any local office is the coordinator — he establishes organization and contacts influential people and political activists. Coordinators must be appointed to each special interests group (women, minorities, unions, college students, public interest activists, the professionals)
“Local volunteers” are needed to work in the offices and the streets. Your family has to take an active part in your campaign, too. Your wife and kids are your visual image makers
“Running Mate.” Your running mate belongs to your staff too — it has to be your best choice. This person should be compatible with you in age, intellect, political views, and be of approximately the same height. He is selected to balance the national ticket in terms of geography, religion, ideology, government experience and political style. You have to appeal to the broad electorate, while your running mate appeals to specific groups. He serves to reinforce — or break down — the electorate’s attitudes toward you. If you have little domestic or foreign policy, or Washington experience, a running mate with that experience can reassure voters. And he has to give voters the impression your policy will be continued unchanged in case you die during your presidency or in case he is elected the US President himself after your two terms in the Office.

  Campaign Tips

Never behave as if you think you are God’s gift to the nation.
Be presidential - look calm, sincere, knowledgeable, fatherly and open.
Be electable -  prove to the nation that you are the best choice.
No one has ever been elected the US President without winning the New Hampshire primary.
Primaries direct financial backers to a promising candidate.
Voters judge you by your friends — appear with popular politicians, big business, labor and interest groups leaders, and show business celebrities. Advertize your meetings with Congress members and world leaders (go abroad if you have a chance to meet a world leader).
 The most important event in the election process is the National Convention, not only because the eventual finalist candidate is actually nominated but because after that the campaign’s audience increases (more than twice as many people vote in general elections as participate in the nomination process). You have to decide how to win the support of these new voters as well as to appeal to people who identify with the other party and partisans who backed losing candidates for the nomination.

  Choosing a Strategy

Any strategy is good if it helps you to win support of a majority of people chosen by the state parties to be delegates to the national convention. Your choice of a strategy depends on your current position:
A. If you are an incumbent, you have to stress that the American people’s life improved a lot during your first term. You can count on successful start because you are guaranteed to be known actually to every American, and the Oval Office lends you credibility and respect. It’s of vital importance to have economic accomplishments — in such a case well-timed announcements of government statistics on the economy or of plans for domestic initiatives can also help you. Listen, I didn’t tell you this, but you have to manipulate (stimulate) the economy during the election year with tax cuts that can help reduce unemployment, and with social programs financing.
  Of course, you’ll have to pay for it, but that will happen after you are re-elected. And a good thing is — an improved economy erases voters’ bad memories of past years. Then, try to avoid too aggressive campaigning — it’s a sign of weakness. Make official appearances in carefully controlled settings. Influence media coverage with official presidential actions and use “pork barrel” politics to appeal to specific constituents. You can also benefit from the nation’s reluctance to reject a tested national leader for an unknown newcomer. And if you start important foreign policy initiatives, it will guarantee you continued media coverage.
If you have poor chances to be re-elected, you can play the “national security” card:
- find a US “enemy”
- start a media psychosis (see propaganda tricks and brainwashing )
- concentrate power (special services) to establish a total legal control on the nation
- provoke an international conflict, restricted or full-scale war
- send a message: “If you are against the President, you are against America!”
 B.  If you are a challenger  you have to convince the public they don’t live better than they did 4 years ago, or, if the economy is OK, point out mistakes that were made in the foreign policy.  Or make up some social issue that will get passions inflamed and hijack the headlines.
  The job is tough if you challenge a President who is popular — first, you have to break down his positive image; second, you have to portray yourself as a much better replacement. You have no choice but to start with the “outsider” strategy — you present a “fresh face” to voters weary of the current political situation (in such a case you have to attack administration in a very aggressive manner). Plus, you must give quick response to your opponent’s charges (get advance copies of his speeches through friends in the media).
  Then, show yourself as a smart and diplomatic person using a special “triangular” strategy, when you, like majority of the voters, place yourself between liberal and conservative positions. Evaluate situation — you may need “early knockout,” when front-runners hope to use their early strength in polls, fundraising and endorsements into decisive primary victories at the beginning of the primary season. The hope is that the candidate will build such an impressive early lead that the competition quickly drops out. And a “shift” is the most popular thing with challengers — if the President is good in national security, they point out to the problems in economy, if he’s good on the economy, they point out to the problems in national security — very simple. (Watch his mistakes anyway — you can benefit from them. Bill Clinton would never have run for President in 1992 if someone from the Bush White House hadn’t called him in 1990 and asked him not to run. That phone call was one of the dummest political moves  of the 20th century, because it convinced Clinton that they thought he had a good chance if he did run for Office.)
  Be simple, identify with “ordinary people” and no matter what tell the voters your parents or your grandparents “were like them — regular people, not millionaires.” You can even say “Feb-uary” and “nuc-ular,” and see if they forget you were educated at Yale.
  Finally, you must know some very popular and efficient dirty tricks, like “negative campaigning” or “black PR.” To make a long story short: no matter what your opponent says or what decent people think about negative campaigning — “black PR” works! Use it to turn a rumor or a fact into a serious political scandal; respond to and neutralize the opponent’s attacks (using “black PR”) fast, before they are broadcasted or published.
  It works best through intermediates (persons and organizations not connected directly to your campaign). You must have a very detailed file on your opponent (negative research) and then start spreading negative and all kinds of compromising data from his personal and political life. If he is or was elected official (Senator, Governor, Mayor), you can point out his mistakes and actions which were not popular. People must know in detail (get your staff to read a few books) the negative sides of his life, program and terrible consequences of his election. Remember also that a rumor repeated twice turns into a fact, especially if you start a “whispering campaign” in Congress.
  A “negative ID” trick is my favorite: you identify your opponent with a totally unacceptable (for the voters) viewpoint, like: “There are those who want to stop the war on international terror and you know who they are!”

Barack Obama 2012: How to Win Elections. 2. Mikhail Kryzhanovsky

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  Fundraising

  You are the #1 fundraiser yourself. You must have substantial financial support to compete. It was estimated early in 2007 that the major candidates for 2008 will spend ONE BILLION dollars in their campaigns. As they say, at that rate, pretty soon we’re talking real money.
  You must have an overall plan which outlines expenditures month by month. It is imperative to have even more money on hand at the end of the campaign for an advertising blitz when the voters are most attentive and the field of candidates has been winnowed out. Half of a campaign funds go to media.
Failing to do well in early caucus and primary contests means more than losing delegates — it means that contributions stop.
  Your speeches have to be a fun, and match the meal and drinks — don’t be heavy and too political. Actually, you have to run two campaigns (a political campaign and a fund-raising one) and you must win both; if you raise less money than your opponent, you lose, because you don’t have enough money to inform, influence, and motivate your voters. If you are a Senator or a Congressman, you already have an advantage in money (free postage on mail sent to your constituents, automatic media coverage) and you can use your congressional staff to assist your campaign. Besides, you are interviewed by reporters for free as an elected official. You can also ask your political party for a contribution to your campaign. Party money can be given in two ways — as a “direct” contribution or as a “coordinated” expenditure. Direct contributions are funds given by the party to candidates to do with as they please. Coordinated expenditures are made for such services as polling and TV advertising, but the party has a say how the money is spent.
  Then you have to ask PACs (political action committees) to fund your campaign, too. PACs are special-interest groups which consist of people who pool their money in order to contribute it to candidates or political party committees who share their political, social, religious or economic views. PACs include corporations, trade unions, professional associations and groups composed of political conservatives or liberals, or people who share the same ideological views on women’s rights, gun control, the environment, civil rights, etc. Remember the “women factor”: there are more women than men in our country, women are more likely to be registered to vote, and among registered voters women are more likely to vote. An additional source of money is “soft money” contributions. “Soft money” is supposed to be used for the party-building activities, but often ends up supporting the campaigns of individual candidates.

The key rules in fundraising are:
- find some “fat cats,” quick
- get fundraisers with lots of rich friends
- get money from those who usually contribute
- go to new York, Florida, California, Texas

  And the most important strategy is to raise big money for yourself and prevent big money from being spent against you. Early fundraising is crucial to a campaign because of the high costs organization and the need to demonstrate viability. The best states for fundraising are California, New York, Florida, Texas, which supply half of all campaign donations. Go right ahead and raise money in New York and spend in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  To finish well in pre-nomination popularity contests (“straw polls”) you have to appear daily in TV ads, and prime-time news coverage — after the primaries media “label” winners and losers and that affects voters and contributors a lot. Media, especially the most influential “the New York Times” and “Washington Post” (their publications influence decisions on which news stories will be carried on TV channels), have to take you as a very serious contender.

Geography

  Due to the winner-take-all  electoral college system, in which the leading vote-getter in a state wins all of that state’s electoral votes, you MUST win as many large states as possible rather than build up strength in states where you are weak. You have to win a majority (270 of the 538 electoral votes) and for that, concentrate on visits to the most populous states — California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Georgia 54+33+32+25+23+22+21+18+15+14+13 = 270).
  Work closely with your party activists and supporters among Senators, Representatives, Governors, Mayors, ethnic and religious groups leaders, big business, celebrities, unions leaders. Determine the states in which you are the strongest and then build you campaign on that basis. Republicans have usually done well in recent years in the Midwest, West and South (Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma). Democrats win in the Northeast industrial base, Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Coast. New York City is a very important factor because the most active, influential and rich people live there.
1.9  The Press
  The press officer (contacts media, takes care of newspapers, radio and TV ads) — the person who markets you — is the boss of advance team that takes care in each state of a total exclusively positive press coverage. To my mind, the best choice for this position is a former journalist with good wide connections to media. He prepares press releases and press kits and schedules interviews and press conferences with the positive vision and attitude reporters (press or media kits contain your photos, a brief biography, campaign position papers, printed brochures and names of contacts for additional information).
  The technique in good paid advertising is to go with those ideas, arguments, thoughts, themes and believes in which people are already inclined to believe or ready to accept. There’s no difference between commercial and political advertising — you just substitute a car or shampoo for a human being. Modern presidential campaigns center on “media events” — staged public appearances, during which reporters can talk with you and take pictures (if you have too much money, you can organize media wave — a very large amount of political advertising on TV). Then, the “walking tours” must be scheduled when you, followed by reporters, photographers and TV crews visit potential supporters.
  Simultaneously your aide sets up press conferences, selects interviews, and background briefings. You have to talk to press 24/7 and everywhere on the campaign bus, train or plain, hotel, etc. A good thing is — you get free media coverage and people trust it more than paid coverage, like TV and radio commercials. You are most likely to win if you obey these rules:
- if you can manipulate media — you manipulate the nation (sorry, it’s harder to manipulate free coverage).
- the media makes the election, not the voters
- a presidential campaign does not allow for privacy
- newspapers put emphasis on issues, TV on image, style and ability to communicate.
- never lie to reporters; they will make sure it backfires on you sooner or later.
- if an influential newspaper, radio or TV station endorses you, you have their supporters, readers, listeners and viewers.
- people remember much better what they see, not what they read; if they don’t see you on TV, you don’t exist.
- TV talks to 98% of Americans and takes your message — and other messages about, or against, you — immediately, straight to the nation.
- TV, not your political party, is the #1 channel of communication between you and the public
- your political party is nothing but a service center and a money machine. Parties divide the nation while your message has to be one of unity.
- take it seriously if The New York Times takes your opponent seriously.
- it’s important to know what your opponent is saying to reporters privately, “not for attribution.”
- if you live in heavily populated state, like New York, California or Texas, you start the presidential election campaign with much better coverage.
- never fight the media like the Nixon administration did — they kept a list of Nixon’s critics (famous reporters), so they could be targeted for harassment, accused of income tax evasion, etc. What happened then? The reporters felt like heroes, Nobel Prize winners. Better target them for buttering up, and feed them lots of stories with a spin in your favor, instead.